Business

Thursday April 30, 2009

Hong Kong should break away from Western influence and follow China


THE London Stock Exchange closed for both Good Friday and Easter Monday. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was closed only on Good Friday. The Shanghai stock market was opened for both days.

On the other hand, the Hong Kong stock market was closed for Good Friday and Easter Monday. Why? Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997, 12 long years ago and yet it still has the mentality of being a British colony.

The Hong Kong exchange is closed for Boxing Day when even the NYSE is not closed.

Why is the Hong Kong exchange still trapped in a totally outdated and inappropriate psyche?

During the course of iCapital’s research, it found out that none of the local directors of Toyota, Canon, Hyundai Motors, Samsung and Bangkok Bank had a Western name. Flick through the annual reports of the Hong Kong-listed companies (excluding those from China) and you will find almost all the local Hong Kong directors have Western names. Why?

The Hang Seng index hit its low on Oct 27, 2008. On March 9, the index – after rebounding somewhat in November and December – fell sharply and came within a whisker of testing the October low before rallying again. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite hit a low on Oct 28, 2008 and has since been rising very steadily.

The differing performance of the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets since they hit their lows reflects the psyche of Hong Kong investors, which is still much more in tune with that of the NYSE than Shanghai. Somehow, investors in Hong Kong, who are supposedly sophisticated and worldly, still cannot see that Hong Kong is now part and parcel of China. The trend of the Hong Kong market, on which many Chinese companies are listed, should be closer to that of Shanghai or, at least, it should not move so much in tandem with the NYSE.

To help the Hong Kong market get out of its bearish trend decisively, iCapital thinks that it is time for Hong Kong to consider opening for trading on Good Friday, Easter Monday and Boxing Day. After that, the local Hong Kong directors should consider copying their other Asian directors by having only their local names. These moves may be symbolic and have nothing to do with the still contracting economic fundamentals but they would be very important in changing the sentiment of investors that the fortunes of Hong Kong are really linked to that of China.

As Hong Kong’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2% for the three months ending March 31, from 5% in the previous three months, the Hang Seng index is about to break above its major resistance of 16,000. China’s economy is already regaining its growth momentum. This is no bear market rally – this is the start of a new bull run.

  • E-mail this story
  • Print this story