Business

Friday October 9, 2009

Positive news boosts ringgit

By FINTAN NG


It strengthens against dollar, pound sterling

PETALING JAYA: More positive economic news, among other factors, is boosting the ringgit versus the US dollar and the pound sterling.

The ringgit has strengthened 4.79% against the greenback in the three months to yesterday and has risen 4.71% versus the pound sterling as central bankers in the United States and Britain remained dovish on interest rates due to a weak recovery.

OSK Investment Bank Bhd currency dealer Tan Voon Ching said the ringgit’s strength was largely due to a recovery in the economy as well as a lower deficit for 2010.

“Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah was also reported as saying that the budget deficit will be below this year’s level of 7.6%,” he told StarBiz.

Tan said there was also the element of speculation with the greenback having taken the yen’s position in the carry-trade due to the low interest rates. “Speculators are borrowing in US dollars to go into the Australian dollar,” he said.

Furthermore, Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz had said in an interview with Bloomberg in Istanbul that the monetary policy must remain “supportive” of growth since there was no risk of inflation or asset bubbles.

Malaysia’s overnight policy rate remains at 2% while inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, contracted 2.4% in August.

Credit Suisse said in an Oct 2 report that the US dollar was expected to remain under pressure heading into 2010. It said the ringgit should strengthen against the greenback to 3.36 on a three-month forecast and 3.20 on a 12-month forecast.

“The revisions reflect our bearish dollar view and expectation of modest trade-weighted ringgit appreciation in line with more constructive fundamentals,” it said.

Credit Suisse added that the ringgit and capital flows would be supported by a stronger global risk appetite, domestic sentiment and modest foreign positioning.

It said in the medium term, the ringgit’s nominal effective exchange rate should appreciate broadly in line with other regional currencies, underpinned by a pick-up in economic growth to 5.5% in 2010 from negative 2.3% this year and recovery in commodity prices.


For Bank Negara statements click here

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