Wednesday February 27, 2013
Analysts maintain TIV forecast for the year at 657,500 units
PETALING JAYA: Analysts are maintaining their automotive total industry volume (TIV) forecast for the year, following January’s increased vehicle sales of 55,066 units – a rise of 34.5%.
“The annualised one-month vehicle sales in January accounted for 103% of our full-year TIV forecast of 637,500 units and the Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) forecast of 640,000 units. At this juncture, we are maintaining our 2013 TIV forecast of 637,500 units, as it would be premature to make any drastic changes in estimates in the first month of the year,” according to MIDF Research in a report yesterday.
Affin Investment Bank, in its research report, also maintained its forecast for the year, in light of the latest MAA vehicle sales numbers.
“We are maintaining our forecast against a backdrop of the 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowdown (from 5.6% in 2012 to 5% for 2013).”
Maybank Investment Bank Research, meanwhile, noted that January vehicle sales were “robust”. “January’s TIV stayed robust, above the 50,000-mark, at 55,066 units, aided by strong festive season campaigns and spillover from year-end inventory clearance. We maintain our 2013 TIV forecast of 638,000 on the back of our in-house 2013 real GDP growth estimate of 5.3%.”
Maybank said while it expects February sales to contract month-on-month, due to shorter working days on the holiday festive period, it believes TIV would still average above the 50,000-mark.
“We continue to expect higher advertising and promotion (A&P) expenses in the festive sales campaign period, but we also note that the weakening yen will cushion the higher A&P expenses, partly offsetting our expectation of margin erosion.”
According to MAA, January sales were spurred by continued aggressive promotional campaigns by car companies and spillover of the December deliveries, with consumer sentiment continuing to be positive.
It said sales volume for February was expected to be lower than in January due to the seasonal shorter working month because of the Chinese New Year holidays.
“Leading the increase in January TIV were Perodua and Proton, where monthly sales rose 15.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 6.2% y-o-y, respectively. Toyota remained the champion among the non-national segment with a 13% market share.”