Business

Friday May 29, 2009

Economist sees solid rebound in global economy in second half


But global economy will be at growth pace below pre-recession average

KUALA LUMPUR: The global economy will rebound from the second half of this year but the rate of growth will be below the recent average prior to the current worldwide slump.

Risks to economic greenshoots were beginning to emerge and the global economy was still vulnerable to shocks, such as another spike in global commodity prices, that could derail the recovery, said Allianz group chief economist Michael Heise.

“We will not expand at the pace of the five years preceding the recession,’’ he said. “But we will not experience stagflation.’’

The recovery has already begun and that could be led by a strong inventory replenishment cycle, according to Heise.

He said corporations had already cut inventories to the bone and that as demand increased, production would have to be ramped up to not only meet market needs, but also to replace inventory levels.

“That’s why the rebound will be strong,’’ he said.

He feels that global growth in the recovery phase would be between 3% and 4% at most, given the severity of the crisis and long-term damage caused to the financial markets and wealth and its impact on consumer demand and job creation.

Heise said credit boom and asset price bubbles should have been checked before they got out of hand and the current crisis could have been averted if interest rates were moved higher earlier.

He also blamed loose monetary policy, inadequate risk modelling, short-term bonus incentives and shadow banking as some of the causes of the crisis.

Heise added that the large number of leveraged buyouts and mergers and acquisitions were also signals of excess cash in the system which should have been pegged back.

The financial crisis was a cyclical event and would change the development of financial markets for years to come, he said.

Part of that change is already being felt.

“There is a lot of deleveraging going on,’’ he said.

The amount of credit default swaps, the securitisation market and global corporate debt obligation issues have contracted significantly since the crisis began and would only help in the future.

“This is not illusionary,’’ he said.

Heise is expecting emerging Asia to grow by 5.6% in 2010 as world trade stabilises and economies pick up across Asia.

“Given the dramatic slide in US imports and the importance of the United States as a sales market, the Asian growth model is set to change. Export momentum will be lower than before the crisis and trade surpluses will decline,’’ Allianz said in a statement.


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