Business

Thursday April 2, 2009

Oil, gold and copper have upside

By YEOW POOI LING


PETALING JAYA: Prices of crude oil, gold and copper may still have some upside in the second quarter, buoyed by prevailing weakness of the US dollar, rising economic growth in China and improving trading positions of major investment banks.

Both crude oil and copper had regained ground in the first three months of this year. The prices had fallen by 65% each at year-end from their respective high in July.

Gold prices, in contrast, remain firm as the precious metal is seen as a safe investment haven amidst the systemic risks to the financial markets and the burgeoning debts in the United States.

A Citigroup report said any sign of stability and return of market confidence would reverse gold prices sharply but the weakness would be short term, as signs of economic and financial stability were anticipated to only surface in the second half of 2010.

OSK Investment Bank, in its report, said while oil prices co-related to the global economy, they were also driven by production and the US dollar strength.

The greenback started to soften by as much as 9% last month while the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) had pledged to reduce production this year by 4.2 million barrels per day from its output levels in September.

A research house said crude oil prices might have already bottomed at US$31 per barrel on Dec 22 and that prices could stabilise on tightening supply by Opec and synchronised global economic recovery in the second half to stabilise demand.

Opec’s next meeting on May 28 might see another cut in production quota if crude oil prices were to continue deteriorating, it added.

A foreign bank-backed research house, in a report, cautioned that the recovery in crude oil and copper prices was based on shaky grounds in the first half.

Historically, it could take up to 15 months for Opec to even out oil prices, it said, adding that in the case of copper, the market had confused China’s strategic reserve buying with actual consumer demand.

“Non-China demand for copper, representing 70% of total demand, is expected to be down 7.9% year-on-year. If China’s buying slows or ceases, base metals prices could retreat closer to their December lows,” the research house said.

The fundamental value of copper should be priced much lower than current levels but the flurry of Chinese demand in the first few months of the year had distorted the true level of global consumption growth, it added.

Copper prices in the second quarter were anticipated to trade between December lows and March-end highs while in the long term, as demand recovered, prices were likely to be higher due to lack of new supply, it said.

  • E-mail this story
  • Print this story