Business

Wednesday November 25, 2009

Price of gold eases

By LEONG HUNG YEE


Investors locking in gains as US dollar rebounds

PETALING JAYA: Gold price, which surged to a historic high of US$1,174 an ounce on Monday, fell slightly as the US dollar rebounded, reducing the metal’s appeal as a hedging instrument.

Over the past two weeks, gold prices had increased almost 10%. Year-to-date the precious metal appreciated more than 35% from a low of US$811.70 on Jan 14. As at 6.34pm local time yesterday, gold was trading at US$1,170 an ounce.

A local commodities dealer said some investors sold gold to lock in gains following the rally.

He said the slumping dollar, which initially boosted gold’s appeal as an alternative investment asset, had rebounded and pressured gold price to retreat.

AIMS Asset Management managing director David Crichton Watt said in a report to clients: “Gold, having been repulsed four times since March 2008 in its attempt to climb above US$1,000 an ounce, did not appear now to have established itself above that psychological barrier.

“It has achieved this admidst considerable scepticism with analysts recommending that nimble traders sell bullion and repurchase when it falls to US$950 an ounce.”

Watt said each time the price had broken through resistance it had “made large upward movements of more than 50% before experiencing a meaningful correction.”

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Plc (StanChart) expects gold to average US$1,300 per ounce in the fourth quarter next year, buoyed partly by central banks’ buying.

It said the investment case for gold had become increasingly compelling with the central banks buying and a structural change in interest for gold as an investment product among retail customers.

Global head of commodity research Helen Henton said that although the upside (gold price) would be capped by lower jewellery demand, increased availability of scrap gold as prices surged to new highs and periodic dollar strength in the first half of 2010 would see gold moving higher to average US$1,300 per ounce once the dollar resumed its weakening trend. Gold has averaged US$955 an ounce so far this year.

“Platinum will outperform gold in 2010, supported by the upward momentum provided by gold prices and due to supply issues, including rising costs and a vulnerable power grid in South Africa,” StanChart forecast in its commodities quarterly report.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch was quoted by Bloomberg that gold would likely advance to US$1,500 an ounce within the next 18 months. It said gold was in the second stage of a rally to US$1,500 that began with the credit crisis in August 2007.

The second stage was marked by dollar weakness while the third stage, a recovery in energy and commodity prices, would boost investment in precious metals, the bank said.

Locally, Tomei Consolidated Bhd group managing director Ng Yih Pyng was still optimistic of the industry.

He said gold prices had been on an uptrend and there were no signs of people cutting down on gold purchases over the past few months.

Ng told StarBiz that higher gold prices meant that consumers would get a smaller piece of jewellery for the same amount of money. He said when prices were high, some consumers actually traded in their jewellery.

It was reported that Habib Jewels managing director Datuk Meer Sadik Habib believed gold price could hit US$1,300 to US$1,500 an ounce by 2010.


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