Business

Published: Wednesday November 12, 2008 MYT 2:55:00 PM

Consumer confidence down in most Asia-Pacific markets


KUALA LUMPUR: Consumer confidence across the Asia-Pacific region has declined due to current economic volatility and worries about an impending global recession, according to a MasterCard survey.

The MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence said consumer confidence fell seven points from six months ago and consumers were pessimistic about the six months ahead.

In a report issued on Wednesday, it said only four out of the 14 markets surveyed – Vietnam, China, India and Singapore – were optimistic about the first half of 2009. However, Hong Kong and Taiwan registered steep declines in consumer confidence levels.

The survey revealed the current regional consumer confidence score of 47.4 was significantly below the score six months ago (55.0) and a year ago (67.3), though it is higher than the average of 32.3 during the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis.

Overall consumer outlook has also fallen across the five indicators that made up the index compared to six months ago.

The survey showed that employment outlook showed a decline at 41.2 vs 54.2 six months ago); economy (42.1 vs 51.8 six months ago), quality of life (44 vs 48.2 six months ago) and the stock market (45.5 vs 53.4 six months ago) and regular income (64.3 vs 72.2 six months ago).

Commenting on the consumers’ outlook in Vietnam, China, India and Singapore, the survey showed Vietnam topped the index with a score of 88.1, the only market that has increased its score from six months ago (86.2).

“Vietnamese consumers are highly optimistic about regular Income (94.7), employment (91.2), economy (88.2) and quality of life (86.9).

“While China (76.6), India (63.9) and Singapore (62.3) remain optimistic about the first half of 2009, they are less optimistic than they were six months ago (China at 82.7; India at 82.1; Singapore at 87.3),” the survey showed.

Australian consumers (49.0) are neutral in their outlook for the next six months.

Nine markets pessimistic about the first half of 2009 saw Hong Kong and Taiwan recording the biggest declines. For Hong Kong, it was 41.8 vs 83.1 six months ago and Taiwan 32.1 vs 71.3 six months ago.

Three markets, although pessimistic, have marginally improved their consumer confidence scores compared to six months ago.

These include Indonesia (38.5 vs 36.7 six months ago), South Korea (31.4 vs 27.7 six months ago) and Thailand (26.2 vs 23.7 six months ago).

It added that Japan, at 17.2, was “much more pessimistic” than it was six months ago (29.0). Consumers from the Philippines (40.0), Malaysia (35.9) and New Zealand (33.7) are pessimistic.

The economic adviser to MasterCard in Asia/Pacific, Dr Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, said consumers across Asia/Pacific were clearly feeling the effects of the global credit crisis.

While Asian financial institutions may be less affected by the global credit crunch and the financial sector melt down, Asian markets were just as severely impacted; and the regional powerhouses like China and India are equally affected, he said.

“While the consumer confidence scores in China and India are still optimistic, confidence levels are still much lower than they were before,” he added.

MASTERCARD WORLDWIDE INDEX OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MARKET FINDINGS AUSTRALIA (49.0 Australians are neutral in their outlook for the next six months, moving away from their pessimism of six months ago (42.8). Compared to a year ago (64.9) and their historical average (56.4), however, they have become less positive in their outlook.

Consumers are pessimistic about Employment (35.5), more so than six months ago (39.8) and a year ago (55.5). But they are less pessimistic than they were six months ago about the Economy (42.1 vs. 38.8 six months ago) and Quality of Life (48.2 vs. 32.7). They are more positive about the Stock Market (56.9 vs. 44.0 six months ago) and Regular Income (62.2 vs. 58.9).

CHINA (76.6 Consumers in China continue to remain confident about the next six months despite the global financial crisis, though less so than they were six months ago (82.7) and a year ago (85.5). China’s current score is slightly ahead of its historical average of 75.6.

Although optimistic, China’s consumers are clearly less optimistic about Employment (72.8 vs. 81.7 six months ago), Economy (79.3 vs. 84.4), Regular Income (86.0 vs. 91.0) and Quality of Life (82.3 vs. 85.3) than they were. China’s overall consumer confidence score was less bullish, driven by consumer sentiments about the Stock Market (62.7), declining from six months ago (71.2) and a year ago (72.9).

Beijing(72.0) has experienced a decline in consumer confidence compared to six months ago (77.9). The outlook is holding relatively unchanged for the Stock Market (58.0 vs. 58.9 six months ago) and Quality of Life (83.1 vs. 84.1), while for Employment ( 60.0 vs. 73.8), Economy (77.2 vs. 82.6), Regular Income (81.5 vs. 90.0), there has been a decline.

Shanghai (72.9) has recorded a significant drop in its consumer confidence score compared to six months ago (95.2) and a year ago (92.1) and is also below its historical average of 78.1. Although still optimistic, consumer confidence in Employment (74.2 vs. 95.9 six months ago), Economy (76.6 vs. 99.2), and Quality of Life (77.2 vs. 100.0) have declined. Consumers have become pessimistic in their outlook on the Stock Market (47.2 vs. 91.0 six months ago)

Guangzhou (85.1) is the only Chinese city to record an increase in consumer confidence compared to six months ago (76.5) and a year ago (78.3). Consumers have become more optimistic about Employment (85.9 vs. 75.6 six months ago), Economy (84.4 vs. 71.9), Stock Market (83.9 vs. 68.1) and Quality of Life (84.4 vs. 72.6). However, their outlook on Regular Income (87.0) while still very positive, is less so than six months ago (94.4).

HONG KONG (41.8) Consumers in Hong Kong have become pessimistic for the first time since 2003, registering a substantive drop in consumer confidence scores from six months ago (83.1) and a year ago (85.9). The current score, although below the market’s historical average of 57.5, is still higher than Hong Kong’s 1997-98 average of 16.9 during the Asian financial crisis. Consumer sentiment is very low on the Economy (28.4 vs. 88.9 six months ago) and the Stock Market (24.1 vs. 71.2), and outlook is pessimistic for Employment (41.7 vs. 88.2) and Quality of Life (48.6 vs. 75.5). Consumers, however, continue to be optimistic about Regular Income (66.4 vs. 91.7 six months ago), although the current score is a marked decline from scores in the 90s in the last five indices.

INDIA (63.9) Consumers in India , though optimistic, are less so than six months ago (82.1) and a year ago (86.6). The score, only slightly better than its historical average of 62.3, is India’s lowest score since 2004.

Consumer sentiments have gone down on all five economic factors. Consumers are a lot less optimistic about Quality of Life (58.9 vs. 87.7 six months ago) and Employment (50.4 vs. 75.1). Other indicators , while also having declined from six months ago, show optimism: Economy (61.2 vs. 80.9), Regular Income (73.5 vs. 87.0) and Stock Market (75.5 vs. 79.8).

New Delhi (54.1) has experienced a significant drop from 70.3 six months ago and 78.0 a year ago to just 54.1. Of all the five economic factors, consumers are optimistic on only two: Regular Income (70.8 vs. 77.9 six months ago) and Stock Market (67.3 vs. 70.7). Consumer sentiments on Economy (50.4 vs. 68.0 six months ago) are hovering at neutral, while outlook on Quality of Life (48.2 vs. 80.3) is marginally pessimistic. Delhi’s consumers are pessimistic about Employment for the first half of 2009, with a score of 33.9, down from 54.6 six months ago and 78.6 a year ago.

Bombay (56.1) consumers have also become significantly less optimistic than they were six months ago (78.1) and a year ago (80.4). They continue to be optimistic about the Stock Market (69.7 vs. 73.0) and Regular Income (72.5 vs. 87.7), but have become neutral in their outlook on Quality of Life (51.0 vs. 82.7 six months ago). They are pessimistic about the Economy (47.8 vs. 78.3) and Employment (39.4 vs. 68.7).

Bangalore (81.4) consumers are the most optimistic in India, boosting India’s overall consumer confidence score, even though they are less optimistic than they were six months ago (96.9) or a year ago (99.0). Consumers continue to be highly optimistic about Economy (88.3 vs. 97.1 six months ago) and the Stock Market (87.8 vs. 95.1), but have become somewhat less so about Employment (79.1 vs. 100.0), Regular Income (77.6 vs. 95.2) and Quality of Life (74.4 vs. 96.9).

INDONESIA (38.5) Following a drop six months back (36.7, from 57.8 a year ago), Indonesian consumers have become slightly less pessimistic about the next six months. They are less pessimistic about Quality of Life (27.5 vs. 17.3 six months ago) and Employment (25.4 vs. 21.4). The sentiments of Indonesian consumers about the Economy (22.6 vs. 23.8 six months ago) and the Stock Market (37.4 vs. 38.6), though, have marginally become more pessimistic. Current outlook on the Economy is the lowest since the peak of the Asian economic crisis in 1997-98.

Despite pessimistic sentiments on most of the economic factors, Indonesian consumers continue to be optimistic about Regular Income (79.7 ) as they have been in most previous surveys, even though they are less so than they were six months ago (82.4).

JAPAN (17.2) Japanese consumers have become even more pessimistic (17.2) compared to six months ago (29.0), and a year ago (48.6), after four consecutive optimistic indices with scores over 60 from the second half of 2005 to the second half of 2007.

Current scores on the economic factors are even lower than those six months ago, with consumer sentiments on the Stock Market (15.0 vs. 32.1 six months ago) and Employment (19.9 vs. 34.5) declining the most. Consumers are also pessimistic about Regular Income (25.5 vs. 34.5 six months ago), Economy (13.5 vs. 24.4) and Quality of Life (12.4 vs. 19.5). Japanese consumers have not been this pessimistic about the Economy since the first half of 2003 (15.0).

KOREA (31.4) Korean consumers have become slightly less pessimistic about their outlook compared to six months ago (27.7). The current score, however, is a significant drop from the consumers’ optimistic sentiments a year ago (64.1).

Consumer sentiment on Employment (20.4 vs. 16.4 six months ago), Economy (23.1 vs. 11.7), the Stock Market (49.8 vs. 48.7) and Quality of Life (18.3 vs. 15.8) continue to be pessimistic, though less so than they were six months ago. Consumer outlook remains relatively unchanged for Regular Income (45.2) compared to six months ago ( 45.9). MALAYSIA (35.9) Malaysia’s current index score (35.9) has dropped slightly from six months ago (36.9). This is the third lowest score since the inception of the survey in 1993, the lowest being those during the height of the 1997-98 financial crisis in the first half of 1998 (31.5) and the second half of 1998 (23.8).

Consumer confidence across three of the five economic factors has fallen even further than the scores six months ago, with sentiments on the Economy (23.6 vs. 33.6 six months ago), Stock Market (32.8 vs. 37.6) and Employment (38.1 vs. 42.6) becoming even more pessimistic. Malaysians have, however, become less pessimistic on both Regular Income (44.9 vs. 39.5 six months ago) and Quality of Life (40.2 vs. 31.2).

NEW ZEALAND (33.7) Consumer confidence in New Zealand continues to be pessimistic, falling from than six months ago (37.1) and a year ago (56.3). The current index score is the second lowest in New Zealand since the inception of the survey, after that in the second half of 1998 (27.5).

Consumer sentiments across all five economic factors are pessimistic, with consumers being particularly doubtful of Employment (29.7 vs. 30.8 six months ago) and Quality of Life (27.8 vs. 33.8). While consumers became slightly less pessimistic on Economy (38.7 vs. 30.1 six months ago) and the Stock Market (36.7 vs. 31.5), they have also become pessimistic on Regular Income (35.3) for the first time in the history of the Index. This is a drop of more than 20 points from their optimistic view on Regular Income six months ago (59.3) and a year ago (80.4).

PHILIPPINES (40.0) Philippines’ consumers continue to be pessimistic, with their consumer confidence score lower than that six months ago (43.2) and below that of a year ago (67.7). It is also below the market’s historical average (50.5).

Consumers are pessimistic on all factors except Regular Income (83.1) where their sentiments have become more optimistic compared to six months ago (78.4). While they have become slightly less pessimistic on the Stock Market compared to six months ago (41.0 vs. 38.1 six months ago), they have become more pessimistic on Employment (23.1 vs. 28.7), Economy (29.3 vs. 35.5) and Quality of Life (23.3 vs. 35.4).

SINGAPORE (62.3) Despite being a regional financial center amidst the global financial turmoil, Singapore is one of the four markets that are optimistic about the first half of 2009. However, Singapore consumers are much less optimistic than they were six months ago (87.3) and a year ago (83.6). Their consumer confidence score has dropped below the market’s historical average of 67.6.

While consumers continue to be optimistic on most of the factors, they are less so compared to six months ago. They are optimistic about Employment (68.6 vs. 98.1 six months ago), Economy (66.8 vs. 93.4), Regular Income (66.6 vs. 85.9) and Quality of Life (63.7 vs. 79.0). Outlook on the Stock Market (45.9 vs. 80.0 six months ago), however, has however become pessimistic.

TAIWAN (32.1) Taiwan consumers, who became optimistic for the first time six months ago after seven consecutive highly pessimistic periods, turned pessimistic again. Their current index score is a significant drop from that of six months ago (71.3) but is slightly better than a year ago (29.7).

Consumer sentiments have dropped to pessimistic levels on all five factors: Employment (25.0 vs. 75.0 six months ago), Economy (32.1 vs. 79.8), Regular Income (31.7 vs. 53.6), Stock Market (35.8 vs. 81.1) and Quality of Life (35.8 vs. 67.3).

THAILAND (26.2) Thai consumers continue to be pessimistic, though confidence levels have risen slightly from six months ago (23.7). The current score, however is much lower than a year ago (44.2).

The political strife in the country seems to have impacted consumers’ confidence as they continue to be pessimistic about Employment (21.1 vs. 22.2 six months ago), Economy (22.4 vs. 16.2), the Stock Market (24.3 vs. 17.2) and Quality of Life (17.8 vs. 12.6) and Regular Income (45.4 vs. 50.5).

VIETNAM (88.1) Vietnam, the most optimistic market surveyed in the Index, is marginally more optimistic than it was six months ago (86.2) but lesser than a year ago (94.3). The current score is also slightly below Vietnam’s historical average of 91.4.

Consumers continue to be upbeat about all factors, including Employment (91.2), where the score remains unchanged from six months ago, Economy (88.2 vs. 84.0 six months ago), Regular Income (94.7 vs. 97.0), Stock Market (79.4 vs. 72.7) and Quality of Life (86.9 vs. 86.0).

Although highly optimistic, the current score is the second lowest for Vietnam since its inception in the Index in 2003.

  • E-mail this story
  • Print this story